WTXS21 PGTW 042200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90S) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/032151ZAUG2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 032200). THE AREA OF 
CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.6S 92.1E IS NOW 
LOCATED NEAR 9.6S 92.2E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE 
COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
FULLY-EXPOSED, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING 
CONVECTION DISPLACED FAR TO THE WEST AND SOUTHEAST. A RECENT 071736Z 
OCEANSAT BULLSEYES PASS INDICATES 10-15 KNOTS WITHIN THE NORTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC WITH 20-25 KTS TO THE SOUTHWEST. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 27-28 C OFFSET BY HIGH EASTERLY 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 25-30 KNOTS AND WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH THE BULK OF 
GUIDANCE REVEALING AN ELONGATED SYSTEM THAT STRUGGLES TO CONSOLIDATE. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.//
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