ABIO10 PGTW 042200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/042200Z-051800ZAUG2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/042151ZAUG2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.6S 92.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6S 92.2E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
WITH FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED FAR TO THE WEST AND SOUTHEAST. A 
RECENT 071736Z OCEANSAT BULLSEYES PASS INDICATES 10-15 KNOTS WITHIN 
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC WITH 20-25 KTS TO THE SOUTHWEST. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 27-28 C OFFSET 
BY HIGH EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 25-30 KNOTS AND WEAK 
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUE TO 
AGREE WITH THE BULK OF GUIDANCE REVEALING AN ELONGATED SYSTEM THAT 
STRUGGLES TO CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DOWNGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO 
LOW.//
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