ABIO10 PGTW 041800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/041800Z-051800ZAUG2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/032151ZAUG25//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.6S 94.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6S 92.1E, APPROXIMATELY 321 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 041230Z F16 SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A 
WEAKLY-DEFINED, FULLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED FAR TO THE WEST AND SOUTHEAST. A PARTIAL 
041514Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS INDICATES 10-15 KNOTS ALONG THE EASTERN AND 
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC WITH 20 KTS TO THE SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 27-28 C OFFSET BY HIGH EASTERLY 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 25-30 KNOTS AND WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN SLIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE BULK 
OF THE CONCISENESS REVEALING AN ELONGATED SYSTEM THAT STRUGGLES TO 
CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 032200) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS. 
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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