ABPW10 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/032100Z-040600ZAUG2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031951ZAUG2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031952ZAUG2025//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030751ZAUG2025//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WARNING. REF C IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 03AUG25 1800Z, TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 42.0N 160.3E, APPROXIMATELY 866 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MISAWA, 
JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 22 KTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 032100) FOR THE FINAL 
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) AT 03AUG25 1800Z, TROPICAL STORM 13W (BAILU) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 36.7N 147.2E, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NARITA 
AIRPORT, AND HAD TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN32 PGTW 032100) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
25.9N 166.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 164.5E, APPROXIMATELY 451 NM 
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF WAKE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT 
IS SLOWLY, BUT STEADILY, CONSOLIDATING WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION 
DEVELOPING OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN FLANK. 
A 022150Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALED A SOMEWHAT ELONGATED LLCC AT THAT 
TIME, WITH 2025 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING UP AROUND THE MAJORITY OF THE 
CIRCULATION, AND A BAND OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS IN THE GRADIENT FLOW TO 
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA 
INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (20-25 KTS) GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (29-30C). THE SYSTEM HAD BEEN TRACKING SOUTHWARD OVER THE 
PAST 24 HOURS, BUT TURNED SHARPLY POLEWARD AFTER 030000Z. GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL CONTINUE ON A 
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF MODELS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH 
IN THE WAY OF INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. ECENS AND 
GEFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS VERY LIMITED, WITH THE GEFS SHOWING A VERY 
WEAK CIRCULATION TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD BUT NOT INTENSIFYING, WHILE 
THE ECENS IS NOT PICKING UP THE CIRCULATION AT ALL. WHILE THERE IS 
LIMITED MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING INTENSIFICATION, THE FACT THAT THE 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT INITIALIZING THE SYSTEM WELL BASED ON THE 
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA, THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THE SYSTEM MAY 
OUTPERFORM THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF C 
(WTPN21 PGTW 030800) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPDATED PARA 1.A.(1) WITH 12W FINAL 
WARNING INFORMATION.//
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