WTPN21 PHNC 032030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/022021ZAUG25//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 022030)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.0N 114.9W TO 15.7N 120.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 031800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.1N 115.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.9N 109.6W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 115.3W, APPROXIMATELY 395 NM 
SOUTH OF SOCORRO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICT PERSISTENT 
CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF 90E, AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE 
BANDS JUST NORTH OF THE SYSTEM WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER. 90E IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH A STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, AND LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE 
NORTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF A 
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND INTENSIFICATION, WITH GFS DETERMINISTIC REMAINS 
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 
PHNC 022030). 
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
042030Z.
//
NNNN