ABIO10 PGTW 031800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/031800Z-
041800ZAUG2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
6.0S 95.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5S 94.8E, APPROXIMATELY 251 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICT A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
EMBEDDED UNDERNEATH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. A 031448Z ASCAT PASS 
REVEALS A NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED ELONGATED CIRCULATION, WITH A POCKET 
OF ELEVATED WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR 
THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH 
MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KTS) FROM THE SOUTHEAST, 
OFFSET BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C) AND MODERATE POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 
90S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD, WITH GFS BEING THE MOST 
AGGRESSIVE OVERALL OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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