ABPW10 PGTW 030800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/030800Z-040600ZAUG2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030151ZAUG2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030152ZAUG2025//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030751ZAUG2025//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS. REF C IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.////
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 03AUG25 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 39.9N 150.8E, APPROXIMATELY 441 NM EAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, AND HAD 
TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS GUSTING TO 
65 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 030300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 03AUG25 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 13W (BAILU) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 33.3N 141.8E, APPROXIMATELY 159 NM SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, 
AND HAD TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN32 PGTW 030300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
25.7N 165.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 166.1E, APPROXIMATELY 398 NM 
NORTH OF WAKE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS 
A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS SLOWLY, 
BUT STEADILY, CONSOLIDATING WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING 
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN FLANK. A 022150Z 
ASCAT-B PASS REVEALED A SOMEWHAT ELONGATED LLCC AT THAT TIME, WITH 20-
25 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING UP AROUND THE MAJORITY OF THE CIRCULATION, AND 
A BAND OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS IN THE GRADIENT FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 
THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KTS) 
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). 
THE SYSTEM HAD BEEN TRACKING SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, BUT 
TURNED SHARPLY POLEWARD AFTER 030000Z. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE 
IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK 
THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF MODELS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF 
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. ECENS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE 
GUIDANCE IS VERY LIMITED, WITH THE GEFS SHOWING A VERY WEAK 
CIRCULATION TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD BUT NOT INTENSIFYING, WHILE THE 
ECENS IS NOT PICKING UP THE CIRCULATION AT ALL. WHILE THERE IS LIMITED 
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING INTENSIFICATION, THE FACT THAT THE GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE NOT INITIALIZING THE SYSTEM WELL BASED ON THE EARLIER 
SCATTEROMETER DATA, THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THE SYSTEM MAY 
OUTPERFORM THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
HIGH. SEE REF C (WTPN21 PGTW 030800) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. 
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO 
HIGH.//
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