WTPN21 PGTW 030800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
115 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25.7N 166.1E TO 29.5N 164.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 27 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 030600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 25.9N 166.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
25.7N 165.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 166.1E, APPROXIMATELY 398 NM 
NORTH OF WAKE.ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A 
FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS SLOWLY, BUT 
STEADILY, CONSOLIDATING WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE 
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN FLANK. A 022150Z ASCAT-B 
PASS REVEALED A SOMEWHAT ELONGATED LLCC AT THAT TIME, WITH 20-25 KNOT 
WINDS WRAPPING UP AROUND THE MAJORITY OF THE CIRCULATION, AND A BAND OF 
25-30 KNOT WINDS IN THE GRADIENT FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KTS) GOOD 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). THE 
SYSTEM HAD BEEN TRACKING SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, BUT TURNED 
SHARPLY POLEWARD AFTER 030000Z. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR 
AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THOUGH THE 
MAJORITY OF MODELS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF INTENSIFICATION 
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. ECENS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS VERY 
LIMITED, WITH THE GEFS SHOWING A VERY WEAK CIRCULATION TRACKING 
NORTHWESTWARD BUT NOT INTENSIFYING, WHILE THE ECENS IS NOT PICKING UP 
THE CIRCULATION AT ALL. WHILE THERE IS LIMITED MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 
INTENSIFICATION, THE FACT THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT INITIALIZING 
THE SYSTEM WELL BASED ON THE EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA, THERE REMAINS A 
POSSIBILITY THE SYSTEM MAY OUTPERFORM THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS HIGH. 
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
040800Z.
//
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