ABIO10 PGTW 030600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/030600Z-031800ZAUG2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.0S 
95.9E, APPROXIMATELY 375 NM NORTH OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO 
THE SOUTHWEST. A 030301Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS 25-30 KNOT WINDS 
SURROUNDING A SMALL LLCC, WITH SOME POCKETS OF HIGHER WINDS, 
PARTICULARLY UNDER THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 KTS) 
OFFSET BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C) AND MODERATE POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 
90S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD, WITH GFS SHOWING 
INCREASED SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION OVER THE OTHER MODELS, OVER THE 
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. ECENS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALSO SHOW MIXED 
RESULTS WITH ECENS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GEFS IN DEVELOPING 
THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO 
MEDIUM.//
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