ABPW10 PGTW 030600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/030600Z-040600ZAUG2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030151ZAUG2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030152ZAUG2025//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 03AUG25 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 39.9N 150.8E, APPROXIMATELY 441 NM EAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, AND HAD 
TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS GUSTING TO 
65 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 030300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 03AUG25 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 13W (BAILU) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 33.3N 141.8E, APPROXIMATELY 159 NM SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, 
AND HAD TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN32 PGTW 030300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
28.2N 167.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 165.8E, APPROXIMATELY 386 NM 
NORTH OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(EIR) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 022150Z ASCAT METOP-B 
25KM IMAGE REVEALS A SWATH OF ELEVATED WINDS (20-25 KNOTS) JUST TO THE 
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE CIRCULATION CENTER. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(20-25 KTS) FROM THE NORTH, OFFSET BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(29-30C) AND A MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN A FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL TRACK 
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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