WTPN21 PHNC 022030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.9N 109.4W TO 13.7N 116.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 021800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.0N 109.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.9N 109.6W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 109.8W, APPROXIMATELY 504 NM 
SOUTH OF SOCORRO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICT CONVECTIVE CLOUD 
LINES WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER FROM 
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN 
EDGE OF THE SYSTEM. 90E IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, AND LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE 
NORTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF A 
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND INTENSIFICATION WHILE GFS DETERMINISTIC IS 
CURRENTLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
032030Z.
//
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