ABPW10 PGTW 021230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/021230Z-030600ZAUG2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020751ZAUG2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020752ZAUG2025//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020753ZAUG2025//
NARR/REF A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS. REF C IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 02AUG25 0600Z, TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
37.5N 144.0E, APPROXIMATELY 218 NM SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, AND HAD 
TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70 KNOTS. 
SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 020900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 02AUG25 0600Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 138.6E, APPROXIMATELY 241 NM NORTHWEST OF IWO TO, 
AND HAD TRACKED EAST- NORTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN32 PGTW 020900) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (3) AT 02AUG25 0600Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01C (IONA) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 16.9N 179.7E, APPROXIMATELY 761 NM EAST OF WAKE ISLAND, AND HAD 
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. 
SEE REF C (WTPN33 PGTW 020900) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (4) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 26.7N 
166.5E, APPROXIMATELY 449 NM NORTH OF WAKE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH DUE TO 
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. A 020923Z ASCAT REVEALS 15-20 KNOT 
WINDS SURROUNDING A SMALL LLCC, WITH SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF HIGHER 
WINDS, PARTICULARLY UNDER THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. 95W HAS PINCHED 
OFF FROM THE SOUTHERN END OF A SHEARLINE OR WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER 
THE LAST 24 HOURS AND MOVED INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL 
ENVIRONMENT, ALLOWING FOR THE RECENT UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SEEN 
IN THE EIR LOOP. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 KTS) OFFSET BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(29-30C) AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC 
MODELS ARE IN A FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION 95W WILL 
TRACK SOUTHWEST SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE EVENTUALLY 
TURNING POLEWARD. GLOBAL MODELS ARE CURRENTLY MIXED AS TO WHETHER 95W 
WILL INTENSIFY. THE GFS SHOWS VERY WEAK INTENSIFICATION, WHILE THE 
REMAINDER OF THE MODELS DO NOT. ECENS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALSO 
SHOW MIXED RESULTS, WITH THE ECENS BEING SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN 
THE GEFS IN DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).//
NNNN