WTPN21 PGTW 012300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 26.7N 136.2E TO 33.4N 143.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 011800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 26.9N 136.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
26.3N 135.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 136.4E, APPROXIMATELY 293 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A 
CONSOLIDATING, COMPACT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AREA WITH PERSISTENT 
CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, A MODERATE 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 
CURRENTLY, THE ONLY HINDRANCE AGAINST 93W IS DRY AIR ALONG THE WESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS 
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH GRADUAL 
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
022300Z.
//
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