WTPN22 PHNC 291930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/281921Z JUL 25//
REF/B/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/291151Z JUL 25//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. REF B IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 291200). //
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.9N 103.5W TO 12.7N 111.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 291930Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.9N 103.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.9N 100.2W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 103.7W, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED AND BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING WITH 
PERSISTENT CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. A 
291241Z F17 SSMIS 91H IMAGE DEPICT LOW-LEVEL CONVECTIVE CLOUD LINES 
WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH, WHILE AN ASCAT-B 291630Z IMAGE 
REVEALS ELEVATED WINDS (20-25 KNOTS) ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED 
CLOUD LINES BEGINNING TO WRAP ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION. 
FLARING CONVECTION HAS BEEN PRESENT ON EITHER SIDE THE CIRCULATION 
CENTER AS THE AREA CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS A CONDUCIVE AREA WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), 
LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND A MODERATE 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH GRADUAL 
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES 
REF A (WTPN22 PHNC 281930).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
301930Z.
4. SEE REF B FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 135.9W
//
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