WTPN21 PHNC 291200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/281151ZJUL25//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 281200)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.5N 135.9W TO 12.6N 142.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 291200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.5N 135.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.5N 
133.1W, APPROXIMATELY 1389 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO. ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) WITH BUILDING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. A 
PARTIAL 290630Z METOP-C ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS DISORGANIZED TROUGHING ALONG 
THE NORTH EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LLCC WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS OF 
10-15 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10-15 KNOTS, 
WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 27-28 C. 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 98E WILL TRACK 
WESTWARD WHILE STEADILY CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 24-
36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 
PHNC 281200).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
301200Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 100.2W
//
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