WTPN22 PHNC 281930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99E)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/281151ZJUL25//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 281200)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.7N 99.9W TO 12.4N 105.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 281800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.9N 100.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.8N 99.6W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 100.2W, APPROXIMATELY 416 NM SOUTH 
OF ACUPULCO, MEXICO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
DISORGANIZED AND BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING WITH PERSISTENT 
CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. FLARING 
CONVECTION HAS BEEN OBSERVED ALONG THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS 
WESTERN FLANK, WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVECTIVE CLOUD LINES WRAPPING AROUND THE 
RELATIVELY BROAD SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS A CONDUCIVE AREA WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), 
LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND A MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
CHANNEL. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A 
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS AS THE CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
291930Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 131.8W.
//
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