ABPW10 PGTW 222200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/222200Z-230600ZJUL2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220751ZJUL2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221951ZJUL2025//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/222121ZJUL2025//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FINAL WARNING. REF C IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 22JUL25 0600Z, TROPICAL STORM 09W (WIPHA) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 20.3N 106.2E, APPROXIMATELY 45 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, 
VIETNAM, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 220900) FOR THE FINAL 
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) AT 22JUL25 1800Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 19.9N 130.8E, APPROXIMATELY 429 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, 
AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 
40 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN32 PGTW 222100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.7N 154.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 151.1E, APPROXIMATELY 408 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS 
A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CYCLING 
OF DEEP CONVECTION SOUTH SOUTH-EAST. A 202355Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS THE 
STRONGEST WINDS (20-25 KTS) ISOLATED TO THE NORTHWEST. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS) ACCOMPANIED BY WARM (30C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98W WILL CONTINUE NORTH AS 
IT GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE 
AGREES ON A NORTHWARD TRACK WITH GEFS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE ON 
DEVELOPMENT THAN ECENS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
19.2N 121.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 121.5E, APPROXIMATELY 65 NM 
NORTH OF APARRI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. 
ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY AND A 221941Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE 
DEPICT IMPROVED CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM CALAYAN, 
PHILIPPINES INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT 24-HOUR SLP DECREASE OF 7 MB FROM 
1004MB TO 997MB WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 12 KNOTS. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 5-10 KNOTS, GOOD 
EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-31C. DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE COME 
INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT SHOWING WINDS OF 30-40 KNOTS WRAPPING AROUND 
THE LLC IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A 
SOUTHWARD TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF LUZON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF C (WTPN21 PGTW 222130) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(2) TO 
HIGH.//
NNNN