ABPW10 PGTW 221800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/221800Z-230600ZJUL2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220751ZJUL2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221351ZJUL2025//
NARR//REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 22JUL25 0600Z, TROPICAL STORM 09W (WIPHA) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 20.3N 106.2E, APPROXIMATELY 45 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, 
VIETNAM, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 220900) FOR THE FINAL 
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) AT 22JUL25 1200Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 19.6N 131.6E, APPROXIMATELY 464 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, 
AND HAD TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN32 PGTW 221500) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.5N 154.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 151.1E, APPROXIMATELY 408 NM 
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
CYCLING OF DEEP CONVECTION SOUTH SOUTH-EAST. A 202355Z ASCAT PASS 
DEPICTS THE STRONGEST WINDS (20-25 KTS) ISOLATED TO THE NORTHWEST. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS 
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS) ACCOMPANIED BY WARM (30C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98W WILL CONTINUE NORTH AS 
IT GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE 
AGREES ON A NORTHWARD TRACK WITH GEFS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE ON 
DEVELOPMENT THAN ECENS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 19.2N 
121.8E, APPROXIMATELY 52 NM NORTH OF APARRI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. A 
RECENT 221313Z ASCAT-B PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 15-20 
KNOTS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO 
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 KNOTS, WEAK UPPER-LEVEL 
OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30C. 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE SPLIT ON DEVELOPMENT 
CONFIDENCE. SOME DETERMINISTIC MODELS FORECAST A BROAD CIRCULATION, 
WHILE GFS DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC, STRONGER CIRCULATION, WITH A TIGHT 
GRADIENT OF 30-40 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE GEFS 
ENSEMBLE INDICATES LOW TRACK CONFIDENCE AMONG ITS MEMBERS, WHILE THE 
ECENS ENSEMBLE SHOWS HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH TIGHTER AGREEMENT ON THE 
SYSTEM’S TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED MEDIUM AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(2).//
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