ABPW10 PGTW 220400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/220400Z-220600ZJUL2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220151ZJUL2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220251ZJUL2025//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 22JUL25 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 09W (WIPHA) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 20.5N 106.8E, APPROXIMATELY 59 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, 
VIETNAM, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 220300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.6N 133.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 133.2E, APPROXIMATELY 650 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC), WITH FORMATIVE BANDING AND LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES 
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 220113Z ASCAT-C BULLSEYE IMAGE REVEALS A 
BROAD CIRCULATION, WITH PATCHY 20-25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN 
QUADRANT AND 5-10 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 220019Z 
MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING 
AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY, WITH IMPROVED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING 
INTO A BROAD CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. SST VALUES ARE FAVORABLE 
AT 30-31C. INVEST 97W HAS FORMED ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN 
AREA OF BROAD MONSOONAL FLOW AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG 
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 
HOURS. AFTER THIS PERIOD, THE SYSTEM MAY DISSIPATE AND MERGE WITH A 
DEVELOPING MONSOON DEPRESSION SOUTH OF OKINAWA. THIS MONSOON 
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE AN EXTENSIVE SWATH OF GALE-FORCE 
WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 220300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.5N 
154.0E, APPROXIMATELY 124 NM EAST OF FANANU. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) WITH CYCLING OF DEEP CONVECTION SOUTH SOUTH-EAST. A 202355Z 
ASCAT PASS WITH ITS STRONGEST WINDS (20-25 KTS) ISOLATED TO THE 
NORTHWEST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS) ACCOMPANIED BY 
WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF 
CONVECTION 98W WILL CONTINUE NORTH AS IT GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES OVER 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AGREES ON A NORTHWARD TRACK WITH 
GEFS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE ON DEVELOPMENT THAN ECENS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO 
HIGH.//
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