ABPW10 PGTW 210600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/210600Z-220600ZJUL2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210151ZJUL2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 21JUL25 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 09W (WIPHA) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 21.5N 109.4E, APPROXIMATELY 198 NM EAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, AND 
HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 210300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.5N 135.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 133.3E, APPROXIMATELY 774 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED, BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTH EASTERN PERIPHERIES WRAPPING 
INTO THE NORTH WEST QUADRANT. A 210043Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS 15 TO 20 
KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE BANDING. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH (20-25 KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND 
MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC ARE IN FAIR 
AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION 97W WILL CONTINUE NORTH AS IT 
GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ECENS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE 
GUIDANCE AGREES ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. DETERMINISTIC MODEL 
GUIDANCE INDICATES AN ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP 
INTO A MONSOON DEPRESSION, CHARACTERIZED BY LARGE SCALE, CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION, WITH EXTENSIVE GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE PERIPHERY AND A 
WEAK CORE OF LIGHT WINDS. AS A RESULT, WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES 
NORTHWESTWARD, IMPACTS MIGHT BE SEEN AS FAR AS 400-600 NM AWAY FROM 
THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION, ALL ALONG THE NORTHERN, EASTERN AND 
SOUTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE SYSTEM.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
MEDIUM.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.5N 
154.0E, APPROXIMATELY 124 NM EAST OF FANANU. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) WITH CYCLING OF DEEP CONVECTION SOUTH SOUTH-EAST. A 202355Z 
ASCAT PASS WITH ITS STRONGEST WINDS (20-25 KTS) ISOLATED TO THE 
NORTHWEST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS) ACCOMPANIED BY 
WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF 
CONVECTION 98W WILL CONTINUE NORTH AS IT GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES OVER 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AGREES ON A NORTHWARD TRACK WITH 
GEFS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE ON DEVELOPMENT THAN ECENS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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