ABPW10 PGTW 180600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/180600Z-190600ZJUL2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171551ZJUL2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
16.4N 125.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 123.8E, APPROXIMATELY 252 NM 
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS 
A MONSOON DEPRESSION, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS A LARGE CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION, GREATER THAN 600NM DIAMETER, WITH GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER 
THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY AND A WEAK CORE OF LIGHT WINDS. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, CONSOLIDATING LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE CURVED BANDING 
WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LLCC. A PARTIAL 180052Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS 
REVEALS A LARGE CORE OF WEAK WINDS (APPROXIMATELY 200NM DIAMETER) 
SURROUNDED BY A BAND OF 30-35 KNOT WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
DEPICTS LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 KNOTS, GOOD 
EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(SST) OF 30-31C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS FORECAST A MORE 
DEFINED, CONSOLIDATED STRUCTURE WITH A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 
18 AND INCREASING SUSTAINED WINDS OF GENERALLY 35-45 KNOTS. HOWEVER, 
SOME MODELS SUGGEST SUSTAINED WINDS AS HIGH AS 50 KNOTS THROUGH THE 
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET 
WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL 
WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 990 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A 
(WTPN21 PGTW 171600) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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