ABPW10 PGTW 171600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/REISSUED/171600Z-180600ZJUL2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171551ZJUL2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.8N 129.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 125.9E, APPROXIMATELY
306NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY 
CLASSIFIED AS A MONSOON DEPRESSION, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS A LARGE 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION, GREATER THAN 600NM DIAMETER, WITH NEAR GALE-
FORCE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY AND A WEAK CORE OF LIGHT WINDS. 
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, 
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION, 
MULTIPLE MESOVORTICES ROTATING CYCLONICALLY, AND EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE 
BANDING OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES WRAPPING INTO THE 
NORTHWEST QUADRANT. A 170958Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DISPLAYS 
FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE BROAD CENTER. A PARTIAL 171225Z 
ASCAT-C PASS INDICATES A BROAD CENTER WITH 25-30 KNOTS ALONG THE 
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SEMI-CIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A 
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (VWS) 20-25 KNOTS, GOOD POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND 
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 30-31C. DETERMINISTIC AND 
ENSEMBLE MODELS MAINTAIN A BROAD, DISORGANIZED STRUCTURE WITH A 
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 24. THE MODELS CONSOLIDATE THE SYSTEM 
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE, WITH 35-45 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NEXT 12-24 
HOURS. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER 
SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED 
FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 
161700) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: REISSUED THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION 
ALERT FOR INVEST 96W.//
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