WTPN21 PGTW 171600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161551ZJUL25//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.2N 126.1E TO 19.9N 119.9E WITHIN 
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF 
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE 
ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 171600Z INDICATES THAT 
A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 125.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING 
NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.8N 129.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 125.9E, APPROXIMATELY
306NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY 
CLASSIFIED AS A MONSOON DEPRESSION, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS A LARGE 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION, GREATER THAN 600NM DIAMETER, WITH NEAR GALE-FORCE 
WINDS OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY AND A WEAK CORE OF LIGHT WINDS. 
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, 
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION, 
MULTIPLE MESOVORTICES ROTATING CYCLONICALLY, AND EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE 
BANDING OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES WRAPPING INTO THE 
NORTHWEST QUADRANT. A 170958Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DISPLAYS 
FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE BROAD CENTER. A PARTIAL 171225Z 
ASCAT-C PASS INDICATES A BROAD CENTER WITH 25-30 KNOTS ALONG THE EASTERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE SEMI-CIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(VWS) 20-25 KNOTS, GOOD POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 30-31C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS 
MAINTAIN A BROAD, DISORGANIZED STRUCTURE WITH A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK 
THROUGH TAU 24. THE MODELS CONSOLIDATE THE SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE, WITH 35-45 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. FOR HAZARDS 
AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS 
AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 161600).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
181600Z.//
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