ABPW10 PGTW 170600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/170600Z-180600ZJUL2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161551ZJUL2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.7N 129.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 126.4E, APPROXIMATELY 318 NM 
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A 
MONSOON DEPRESSION, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS A LARGE CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION, GREATER THAN 600NM DIAMETER, WITH EXTENSIVE NEAR GALE-
FORCE WINDS AND A WEAK CORE OF LIGHT WINDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN ELONGATED, POORLY ORGANIZED LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION. A 170027Z 
ASCAT-B IMAGE DISPLAYS A LARGE CORE OF WEAK WINDS, WITH 25-30 KNOT 
WINDS ALONG THE PERIPHERY. A PARTIAL 170047Z ATMS 88.2GHZ MICROWAVE 
IMAGE DISPLAYS FRAGMENTED BANDING ALONG THE EASTERN AND WESTERN 
PERIPHERIES WITH NO DEFINED LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A 
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 KNOTS, GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL 
OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 30-31C. 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS MAINTAIN A BROAD, DISORGANIZED 
STRUCTURE WITH A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE MODELS CONSOLIDATE THE 
SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE, WITH 35-40 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NEXT 
24-36 HOURS. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER 
CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO 
DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. 
SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 161600) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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