ABPW10 PGTW 161600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/161600Z-170600ZJUL2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151951ZJUL2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161551ZJUL2025//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AND REF B IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 15JUL25 1800Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 141.5E, APPROXIMATELY 56 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF 
MISAWA, JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 30 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN32 PGTW 152100) FOR THE FINAL 
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.1N 131.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 129.2E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM 
EAST OF LEGAZPI. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A SLOWLY 
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY FLARING 
CONVECTION WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING BUILDING NEAR THE CENTER. A PARTIAL 
161155Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS A BROAD AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH ITS 
STRONGEST WINDS TO THE WEST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA 
INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE 
(15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION 
96W WILL CONTINUE WEST NORTHWEST AS IT GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AGREES ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH 
ECENS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE ON DEVELOPMENT THAN THE GEFS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 161600) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO 
HIGH.//
NNNN