WTPN21 PGTW 161600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.7N 129.2E TO 18.6N 122.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 161600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.8N 129.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.1N 131.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 129.2E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM EAST 
OF LEGAZPI. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A SLOWLY 
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY FLARING 
CONVECTION WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING BUILDING NEAR THE CENTER. A PARTIAL 
161155Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS A BROAD AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH ITS 
STRONGEST WINDS TO THE WEST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA 
INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-
20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND 
MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN 
FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION 96W WILL CONTINUE WEST 
NORTHWEST AS IT GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ENSEMBLE 
GUIDANCE AGREES ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH ECENS BEING MORE 
AGGRESSIVE ON DEVELOPMENT THAN THE GEFS.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
171600Z.
//
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