ABPW10 PGTW 160600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/160600Z-170600ZJUL2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151951ZJUL2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 15JUL25 1800Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 141.5E, APPROXIMATELY 56 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF 
MISAWA, JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 30 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN32 PGTW 152100) FOR THE FINAL 
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.1N 131.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 131.2E, APPROXIMATELY 436 NM 
EAST OF LEGAZPI. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A MONSOON 
DEPRESSION, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION, 
GREATER THAN 600 NM DIAMETER, WITH EXTENSIVE GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE 
SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY AND A WEAK CORE OF LIGHT WINDS. MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION THAT IS 
SHEARED FROM THE NORTH. A PARTIAL 160047Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS A BROAD 
AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH ITS STRONGEST WINDS ISOLATED TO THE 
NORTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20 KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS 
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION 96W WILL CONTINUE 
WEST NORTHWEST AS IT GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AGREES ON A WEST NORTHWEST TRACK WITH ECENS BEING 
MORE AGGRESSIVE ON DEVELOPMENT THAN THE GEFS. FOR HAZARDS AND 
WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND 
SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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