ABIO10 PGTW 160030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/160030Z-161800ZJUL2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160021ZJUL2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
7.2S 91.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2S 91.4E, APPROXIMATELY 401 NM 
NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICT AN AREA OF CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING SURROUNDING 
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MODERATELY FAVORABLE WITH GOOD 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE 
ONLY HINDRANCE BEING MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
IMPACTING 90S FROM THE EAST. CURRENT GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH MARGINAL 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 170030) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
NNNN