ABIO10 PGTW 151800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/151800Z-
161800ZJUL2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
5.1S 90.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.2S 91.3E, APPROXIMATELY 447 NM 
NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) 
AS WELL AS A 151207Z WSFM 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN AREA OF 
FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A DEFINED 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). FURTHERMORE, A 151532Z ASCAT METOP-
B IMAGE REVEALS ELEVATED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS (25-30 KNOTS) WITH 20 KNOT 
WINDS WRAPPING ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH GOOD POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY 
MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE EAST. 
CURRENT GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
ON A SLOW SOUTHWARD TRACK WITH MARGINAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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