ABPW10 PGTW 102030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/102030Z-110600ZJUL2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/102021ZJUL2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
23.2N 141.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 141.1E, APPROXIMATELY 26 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A COMPACT, WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY PERSISTENT CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE 
CENTER. A SURFACE OBSERVATION TAKEN FROM IWO TO AT 101800Z SHOWS EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 20 KNOTS GUSTING AT 31 KNOTS. A 101637Z AMSR2 
GW1 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES 
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST, WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (29-30 C) AND MODERATE EASTWARD OUTFLOW. A TROPICAL UPPER 
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) FURTHER EAST OF THE SYSTEM IS ENHANCING THE 
EASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL OF THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND 
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWARD TRACK WITH 
MARGINAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH ECENS BEING THE 
MOST AGGRESSIVE OVERALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A 
(WTPN21 PGTW 102030) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
25.9N 126.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 126.7E, APPROXIMATELY 56 NM 
WEST OF KADENA AB. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) 
DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING WITH SPARSE CONVECTION 
FLARING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). 
FURTHERMORE, A 101313Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS EMPHASIZES THE BROAD NATURE 
OF 92W. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 92W IS IN A MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29 C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR, AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. 
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON A 
NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, WITH GFS BEING THE MOST 
AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
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