ABPW10 PGTW 102030 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/102030Z-110600ZJUL2025// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/102021ZJUL2025// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 141.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 141.1E, APPROXIMATELY 26 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A COMPACT, WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY PERSISTENT CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. A SURFACE OBSERVATION TAKEN FROM IWO TO AT 101800Z SHOWS EAST- SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 20 KNOTS GUSTING AT 31 KNOTS. A 101637Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C) AND MODERATE EASTWARD OUTFLOW. A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) FURTHER EAST OF THE SYSTEM IS ENHANCING THE EASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL OF THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWARD TRACK WITH MARGINAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH ECENS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OVERALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 102030) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 126.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 126.7E, APPROXIMATELY 56 NM WEST OF KADENA AB. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING WITH SPARSE CONVECTION FLARING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). FURTHERMORE, A 101313Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS EMPHASIZES THE BROAD NATURE OF 92W. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 92W IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, WITH GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO HIGH.// NNNN