ABPW10 PGTW 101800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/101800Z-110600ZJUL2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
20.6N 142.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 141.8E, APPROXIMATELY 99 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A COMPACT, CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION DIRECTLY OVER THE CENTER. 
A 101131Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN ILL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 
ELEVATED (25-30KT) SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY 
BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA 
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE 
(15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST, WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (29-30 C) AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWARD 
TRACK WITH MARGINAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH ECENS 
BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OVERALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 25.9N 
126.8E, APPROXIMATELY 59 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AREA OF 
CYCLONIC TURNING WITH SPARSE CONVECTION FLARING TO THE NORTHEAST OF 
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). FURTHERMORE, A 101313Z ASCAT METOP-B 
PASS EMPHASIZES THE BROAD NATURE OF 92W. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES 92W IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH WARM (29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 
KTS) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW TO 
THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE 
IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, WITH 
GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF INTENSITY. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM 
AND ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2).//
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