ABPW10 PGTW 100600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/100600Z-110600ZJUL2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 20.6N 
142.2E, APPROXIMATELY 169 NM SOUTH OF IWO TO. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION THAT IS SHEARED FROM THE EAST. A 
092329Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH ITS STRONGEST 
WINDS ISOLATED TO THE SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA 
INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO 
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (30-31 C) AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION 
93W WILL CONTINUE NORTH AS IT GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 72 
HOURS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AGREES ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH ECENS 
BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE ON DEVELOPMENT THAN THE GEFS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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