WTPN21 PHNC 050130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.6N 103.7W TO 14.9N 107.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 050000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.7N 103.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96E) IS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N
103.8W, APPROXIMATELY 296NM SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 0411954Z 89GHZ AMSR2
IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING, ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
WITH SPARSE DEEP CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE WESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION.  ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 
FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY FAIR DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW ALOFT, 
LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST
96E WILL MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
060130Z.
//
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