ABPW10 PGTW 020600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS 020600Z-030600ZJUL2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020151ZJUL2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 02JUL25 0000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 25.0N 147.4E, APPROXIMATELY 735 NM SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, 
AND HAD TRACKED NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 020300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
16.9N 124.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 123.7E, APPROXIMATELY 108 NM 
NORTHEAST OF CASIGURAN, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 020048Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS 
A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED 
FORMATIVE BANDING AND BUILDING CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), MODERATE 
EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
OF (30-31 C). DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT 
FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH NAVGEM BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS. MODELS OVERALL AGREE ON A GRADUAL AND SLOW NORTHWARD TRACK OVER 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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