ABPW10 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/012100Z-020600ZJUL2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011951ZJUL2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 01JUL25 1800Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 147.6E, APPROXIMATELY 782 NM SOUTHEAST OF 
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE 
ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 
012100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
21.4N 147.9E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE 
PARA. 1.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
21.4N 147.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 124.0E, APPROXIMATELY 115NM 
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CASIGURAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 011123Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A 
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED 
FORMATIVE BANDING AND BUILDING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), 
MODERATE EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES OF (30-31 C). DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES MODELS ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE OVER THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS. MODELS OVERALL AGREE ON A SLOW NORTHWARD TRACK OVER 
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO WARNING 
STATUS.//
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