ABPW10 PGTW 011800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/011800Z-020600ZJUL2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011351ZJUL2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
21.4N 147.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 147.6E, APPROXIMATELY 344 NM 
EAST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 
010948Z GMI 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTH AND EASTERN 
PERIPHERIES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (29-30 C) AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, OFFSET BY 
MODERATE SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS), AS RELATIVELY DRY 
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL 
TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL CONTINUE NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 011400) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
21.4N 147.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 124.0E, APPROXIMATELY 115 NM 
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CASIGURAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 011123Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A 
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED 
FORMATIVE BANDING AND BUILDING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), 
MODERATE EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES OF (30-31 C). DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES MODELS ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE OVER THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS. MODELS OVERALL AGREE ON A SLOW NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B. (2) TO 
MEDIUM.//
NNNN