ABPW10 PGTW 300130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/300130ZJUN2025-300600ZJUL2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.2N 
134.1E, APPROXIMATELY 655 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF APARRI, PHILIPPINES. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL (MSI) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED, 
IF FAIRLY WEAK, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED 
POCKETS OF FLARING CONVECTION IN THE RAIN BANDS ALONG THE WEST AND 
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY. A 292123Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS THE 
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION DEVOID OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 98W IS IN A MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 
WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED JUST 
WEST OF THE LLCC AND A TUTT-CELL POSITIONED FURTHER WEST, NEAR LUZON. 
SSTS ARE VERY WARM (30-31C) AND OHC IS HIGH.  GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE 
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS, ULTIMATELY MERGING WITH A PRE-EXISTING, BROAD 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. ONCE THE MERGER OCCURS, 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY 
CONSOLIDATE AND DEVELOP, BEYOND 48 HOURS. ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS 
ALSO IN AGREEMENT, SHOWING THE CIRCULATION TRACKING WEST, THEN MERGING 
WITH ANOTHER CIRCULATION BEFORE TRACKING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE 
STEADILY CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING, BEYOND THE 48 HOUR POINT.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).//
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