WTPN21 PHNC 282000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/271951ZJUN2025//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.2N 96.7W TO 14.9N 101.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 22 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 281800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.4N 97.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.0N 96.0W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 97.2W, APPROXIMATELY 144NM SOUTH 
OF PUNTA ESCONDIDA, MEXICO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS 
A MORE DEFINED AREA OF ROTATION WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BUILDING 
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION, AS WELL AS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS TO 
THE EAST-NORTHEAST. A 281621Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE ROTATION, WITH ELEVATED WINDS OF 
20-25 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN EXTENT OF THE CIRCULATION. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 95E IS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT DUE TO LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE ON DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A 24-36 
HOUR PERIOD AND A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES 
REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 272000).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
292000Z.//
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