WTPN21 PHNC 272000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.9N 94.3W TO 13.7N 97.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 271800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.0N 94.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95E) IS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 
94.5W, APPROXIMATLEY 352NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SALINA CRUZ, MEXICO. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR 
THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION AND TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST. A 
271549Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS 15-20 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE 
CENTER, WITH A WIND FIELD OF 20-25 KNOTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 95E IS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT DUE TO WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO 
MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT 
SHOWING STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH A GENERAL 
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
282000Z.//
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