ABPW10 PGTW 270600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/270600Z-280600ZJUN2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.5N 142.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 138.3E, APPROXIMATELY 428 NM 
NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING 
CONVECTION DISPLACED FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 270038Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS 
A BROAD AND INCOMPLETE CIRCULATION WITH WINDS OF 15-20 KTS IN THE 
NORTHERN SECTOR. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH 
(20-25 KTS) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE NOW SHIFTED TO DEPICTING LITTLE TO NO 
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SPLIT WITH 
GEFS KEEPING THE SYSTEM STATIONARY WHILE ECENS TRACKS IT OFF TO THE 
WEST.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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