ABPW10 PGTW 250600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/250600Z-260600ZJUN2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/250153ZJUN2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/250151ZJUN2025//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 25JUN25 0000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (SEPAT) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 139.5E, APPROXIMATELY 198 NM SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA, 
JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 250300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) IS STILL ASSEST TO BE 
LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 114.2E, APPROXIMATELY 273 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG. 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), OBSCURED BY PERSISTENT DEEP 
CONVECTION BUILDING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LLCC WITH CURVED DEEP 
BANDING. A RECENT 020800Z METOP-C SCAT PASS SUPPORTS INVEST 96W’S 
POSITION AND THE DEEP PERSISTENT CONVECTION BUILDING NEAR THE LLCC. A 
RECENT 250300Z SHIP OBSERVATION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION 
INDICATES 15 KNOT SOUTHERLY WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS 
THAT INVEST 96W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO 
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15 KNOTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL 
OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30C. DETERMINISTIC 
AND ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE SPLIT ON DEVELOPMENT OVER A 
LIKELIHOOD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS FORECAST 96W 
TO ONLY REACH WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS, WHEREAS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS 
MULTIPLE MEMBERS REACHING 25 KNOTS AND HIGHER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 250200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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