ABPW10 PGTW 250200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/250200Z-250600ZJUN2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241951ZJUN2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/250151ZJUN2025//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 24JUN25 1800Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (SEPAT) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 139.8E, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA, 
JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 242100) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.4N 118.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 114.2E, APPROXIMATELY 303 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAIKOU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PERSISTING NEAR THE LLCC. THE LACK OF 
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY OR SCATTEROMETER DATA PRECLUDE A HIGH 
CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT OF THE PRECISE POSITION OF THE LLCC, OTHER THAN 
TO SAY IT IS TUCKED UNDER THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD SHIELD. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 96W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, 
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CONTINUED, 
BUT SLOW, DEVELOPMENT OF 96W OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. BOTH THE GEFS 
AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL 
NORTHWESTERLY TRACK TOWARDS THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN CHINA. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 250200) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO 
HIGH.//
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