ABPW10 PGTW 220200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/220200Z-220600ZJUN2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220151ZJUN2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
22.3N 146.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 146.2E, APPROXIMATELY 301 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A 
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 212300Z ASCAT 
METOP-B 25KM IMAGE SHOWS ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS (20 KNOTS) BEGINNING 
TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 95W IS 
CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE SOUTHWEST, MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY HINDRANCE TO 
DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY IS A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) 
CELL POSITIONED WEST OF THE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY RESTRICTING 
OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL CONTINUE TO 
TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT 
CONTINUES TO DISTANCE ITSELF FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT CELL. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 220200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
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