WTPN21 PGTW 220200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 21.9N 146.6E TO 27.0N 142.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 220200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 22.3N 146.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
22.3N 146.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 146.2E, APPROXIMATELY 301 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A 
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 212300Z ASCAT 
METOP-B 25KM IMAGE SHOWS ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS (20 KNOTS) BEGINNING 
TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 95W IS 
CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE SOUTHWEST, MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY HINDRANCE TO 
DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY IS A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) 
CELL POSITIONED WEST OF THE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY RESTRICTING 
OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL CONTINUE TO 
TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT 
CONTINUES TO DISTANCE ITSELF FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT CELL.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
230200Z.
//
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