WTPN21 PHNC 120000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.1N 96.6W TO 12.2N 100.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 061800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.3N 97.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93E) IS LOCATED NEAR 9.3N
97.0W, APPROXIMATELY 484 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. A 
120001Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 15-20 KTS WINDS 
OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 
93E IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, 
LOW (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 
93E WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP AND TAKE A NORTHWEST TRACK OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
130000Z.
//
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