WTPN21 PGTW 100930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.3N 114.5E TO 17.0N 109.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 100600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.4N 114.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PEVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.2N 115.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 114.8E, APPROXIMATELY 349 NM 
EAST OF DA NANG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS 
AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH FORMATIVE LOW-LEVEL 
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A PARTIAL 100223Z ASCAT (METOP-C) 
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS 
(APPROXIMATELY 20KTS) AROUND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE INVEST. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH 
GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(SST) OF 29-30C, AND LOW TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS). 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL 
DEVELOP WHILE TRACKING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
110930Z.//
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