WTPN22 PHNC 072200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92E) REISSUED//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/062152ZJUN2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/072151ZJUN2025//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.3N 100.1W TO 16.4N 104.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 072040Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.0N 100.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92E) IS LOCATED 
NEAR 14.0N 100.2W, APPROXIMATELY 147 NM SOUTH OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. A 
071627Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 25-30 KTS 
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 
INVEST 92E IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO GOOD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT, LOW (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 
INVEST 92E WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP AND TAKE A NORTHWEST TRACK 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
25 TO 30 KTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN22 
PHNC 062200).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
082200Z.
4. SEE REF B FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 108.5W
//
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