ABPW10 PGTW 070600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/070600Z-080600ZJUN2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.8N 130.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 126.5E, APPROXIMATELY 162 NM EAST 
OF LEGAZPI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS 
SPARSE FLARING CONVECTION WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF AN 
EXTREMELY BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 070145Z ASCAT METOP-C 
IMAGE REVEALS A SWATH OF 10-15 KNOT SOUTHERLY WINDS WITHIN THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF 
BEING A POSSIBLE MONSOON DEPRESSION, WITH A VERY LARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM 
WINDS AND POCKETS OF ENHANCED VORTICITY ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN 
PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATELY FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT, WITH MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL EQUATORWARD FLOW ALOFT AND LOW 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15 KNOTS. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
OF 30-31C ARE GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT IF THE LLC CAN 
CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SPLIT, WITH 
THE GFS BEING SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE, INDICATING 92W WILL REMAIN 
RELATIVELY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. AS FOR THE ENSEMBLE 
MODELS, THE ECENS SHOWS TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT, 92W 
AND AN AREA ORIGINATING NORTH OF YAP, WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE AND 
SHOW MODERATE DEVELOPMENT. THE GEFS MAINTAINS A SINGLE AREA OF 
DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH 92W THAT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY 
THROUGHOUT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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