WTPN21 PHNC 062200 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91E) CORRECTED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/062200Z JUN 25//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN22 PHNC 062200)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.9N 104.7W TO 12.0N 107.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 062030Z INDICATES THAT A WEAK CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.1N 105.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91E) IS LOCATED 
NEAR 10.1N 105.7W, APPROXIMATELY 505 NM SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. A 
061719Z ASCAT-C IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 18-23KT WINDS OVER
THE WESTERN QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 91E 
IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW 
(LESS THAN 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91E 
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP AND TAKE A NORTHWEST TRACK OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
072200Z.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED REISSUE TIME IN PARAGRAPH 
3.//
5. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 97.0W
//
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