ABPW10 PGTW 060600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/060600Z-070600ZJUN2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.9N 132.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 130.5E, APPROXIMATELY 394 NM 
EAST OF LEGAZPI.  ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICT DEEP FLARING CONVECTION WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF 
AN EXTREMELY BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE SYSTEM IS SHOWING 
SIGNS OF BEING A MONSOON DEPRESSION, WITH A VERY LARGE RADIUS OF 
MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) AND POCKETS OF ENHANCED VORTICITY ALONG THE 
EASTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A NEUTRAL  
ENVIRONMENT, WITH MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OVER TOP OF THE 
LLC, INDUCING LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 
KNOTS, AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES OF 30-31C ARE GENERALLY CONDUCIVE OF DEVELOPMENT IF THE 
LLC CAN CONSOLIDATE. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SPLIT, WITH THE GFS 
INDICATING 92W WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY AND VERY BROAD, 
EXTENDING ATROFEASTWARD, WHERE MORE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OCCURS IN 
THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE ECMWF SHOWS MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT UNTIL 
AFTER TAU 96 WHEN THE SYSTEM SLOWLY CONSOLIDATES BUT REMAINS A 
MONSOON DEPRESSION. THE ECENS SHOWS TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF POSSIBLE 
DEVELOPMENT, 92W AND AN AREA ORIGINATING NORTH OF YAP, WHICH 
EVENTUALLY MERGE AND SHOW MODERATE DEVELOPMENT, BUT WELL AFTER TAU 
24. HE GEFS MAINTAINS A SINGLE AREA OF DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH 
92W THAT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY UNTIL DEVELOPING WELL AFTER TAU 24. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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